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STRATFOR’s 2011 Annual Forecast

As you know, I'm an avid researcher when it comes to my own annual forecast, which you saw a couple of weeks ago. One of my favorite resources is STRATFOR, a global intelligence company founded by my friend George Friedman. Their focus is geopolitics, which means they cover political, economic and...

Geopolitical Journey, Part VI: Ukraine

This week’s article comes from my friend George Friedman, founder of the intelligence company STRATFOR. In this stop on his trip through the Black Sea Basin, he explores Ukraine, a borderland that separates Europe and Russia.

Imagine your nation torn between two completely unique languages,...

Geopolitical Journey, Part I: The Traveler

My friend and fishing buddy George Friedman travels as much as I do. Yet even when we visit the same place, it's like we're in two different countries. I see a river and think about fishing. George sees a river and explains a geographical reality that's shaped that nation's history. I read the menu...

Elecciones Legislativas Intermedias en EE.UU. , Obama e Irán

China and the Future of Rare Earth Elements - Outside the Box Special

With midterm elections quickly approaching, the media is full of sordid details about candidates and good old-fashioned mudslinging. Few take a giant step back, and consequentially the high road, to recognize the big picture. As my friend George states in the piece below - whether we see...

China and the Future of Rare Earth Elements

My internet went out today, and after chewing out my service provider for a good half-hour, I got to thinking about how we accomplished work in the good old days, before the age of information, when a mouse was just a furry varmint chased by cats. My thoughts snowballed, as they often do, and I...

Pakistan and the U.S. Exit From Afghanistan

In the wake of the newly appointed heir to the North Korean dictatorship position, I've been thinking about the 'cult of personality'. Traditional reporting will often focus on the personality of leaders or, in the case of democracy, the details of leaders' interactions. While it's interesting to...

Looking to 2012: China’s Next Generation of Leaders

The Chinese have a bit of a challenge on their hands. One could reason that as the world's most populous country, China would also have the highest number of individuals living in poverty. However, I was shocked to learn that the number is over 600 million. Talk about a mess. If you do any sort of...

U.S. Drawdown From Iraq Leaves Void

The U.S. withdrawal date has come and gone. What will post-withdrawal Iraq look like? Can the Iraqi security forces fill the void? How will Iran exploit the diminished U.S. presence? To understand the answers to these questions you need a perspective the is to the point and contains no bias. In...

China’s GDP and Questions of Strength

Today I'd like us to think about sustainability. The Mayfly is a species of insect that goes from egg to death sometimes in as little as 30 minutes, and never more than a day. Take note, because as investors we have to be wary of the same rapid fluxes in economies. I'm of course speaking of the...

Dispatch: China Factors in U.S.-South Korean Relations

The key to being a great chess player is to think ahead. True grandmasters think ahead not by just one or two steps, but a full game. The key to winning is determining the most likely moves of your opponent, among what seem at first glance to be hundreds of possibilities. The same can be said of...

Europe: The State of the Banking System

We're bombarded with information from the minute we wake up until the second we fall asleep. I was watching a news network last night for 45 minutes and the exact stories started coming back around. Nothing new to report, but the same topics on repeat, with the rare nominal development.

When I...

U.S.: The Afghanistan Strategy After McChrystal

While the U.S. was celebrating its World Cup victory over Algeria, another struggle was playing out in Washington that also grabbed the world's attention. In that instance, the loser was Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who was forced by the president to resign his command of U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Flotillas and the Wars of Public Opinion

This week, we've seen a barrage of news and opinion pieces on Israel's attack on the Turkish aid flotilla headed for the Gaza strip. In the midst of myriad media discussions concerning the moral and strategic angles, my friend George Friedman from STRATFOR brings up an interesting point: "[The...

Germany, Greece and Exiting the Eurozone

The cause célèbre these days is the potential reconstitution of the eurozone: ie, Germany leaving it, or Greece getting kicked out. To look a little deeper, today I'm sending you STRATFOR's take on these two scenarios. STRATFOR explores the geography of the continent and the historical context of...

The Global Crisis of Legitimacy

From my friend George Friedman, founder & CEO of STRATFOR, here's my newest favorite quote concerning economic recessions: "Like forest fires, they are painful when they occur, yet without them, the forest could not survive. They impose discipline, punishing the reckless, rewarding the cautious."...

The Making of a Greek Tragedy

Back and recovering from my Strategic Investment Conference this weekend (where I decided to give myself permission not to write my usual letter, but I promise I will be back at it this next Friday!) I have spent some time pondering what we learned. It was a fabulous conference. Lacy Hunt, Dr. Gary...

Ecuador:  Correa’s Play for Greater Influence in the Oil Sector

Today I'm sending you a piece on Ecuador's recent move to change the terms of its contracts with oil investors to keep more of the returns in the state. As we watch the world's energy market, political details like this are essential to know. The article explores the geopolitical implications of...

Mexico and the Failed State Revisited

The United States' southern neighbors have always held a special interest for explorers. In particular Sir Walter Raleigh and his ill-fated quest for El Dorado comes to mind (I'm sure we can all relate). Modern day explorers, also known as investors, are still looking for the best place to stake...

Germany: Mitteleuropa Redux

With the establishment of the euro in the 1990s, speculation was abundant on how things would play out. In the last fews months we've seen that cheap credit for the Club Med countries came at a price, and now it's time to look at who will come out on top after the current economic crisis. There is...