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The Mess in Europe

The disconnect in Europe just gets worse and worse, as I sadly predicted at least a few years ago, and have made a big deal out of over the last year, with the very pointed note that a European banking crisis is the #1 monster in my worry closet. Today, within 15 minutes of each other,...

STRATFOR’s 2011 Second Quarter Forecast

I always look forward the beginning of a new quarter, because it gives me a chance to read STRATFOR's update of their annual forecast, which I shared with you in January. Their quarterly forecast explores developing geopolitical trends in each region of the world.  In recent months and quarters...

Geopolitical Journey, Part I: The Traveler

My friend and fishing buddy George Friedman travels as much as I do. Yet even when we visit the same place, it's like we're in two different countries. I see a river and think about fishing. George sees a river and explains a geographical reality that's shaped that nation's history. I read the menu...

Insolvency Too

As readers know, I was in Europe a few weeks ago, making a LOT of presentations. My London-based partners seem to feel that an hour or two of down time is wasted and only for sissies. I learn as much as I impart, and come away with lots of interesting information. Every now and then I learn...

GaveKal Five Corners

This week we look at some mostly bullish analysis from my friends at GaveKal for the Outside the Box. Much of the letter is devoted to looking at why Europe may fare better than many think (which will make uber-European bull David Kotok happy to read!). But be very sure to read the last page as...

Running through a minefield, backwards

Before we get into today's Outside the Box I want to clear up a few ideas from this weekend's letter. There have been posts on various websites equating my piece on deflation with Paul Krugman. They say I am advocating kicking the can down the road and not reducing the deficit.

Wrong. What I have...

Europe: The State of the Banking System

We're bombarded with information from the minute we wake up until the second we fall asleep. I was watching a news network last night for 45 minutes and the exact stories started coming back around. Nothing new to report, but the same topics on repeat, with the rare nominal development.

When I...

Print baby, print ... emerging value and the quest to buy inflation

This week I thought I would give you an Outside the Box with a more European flavor, as I am in Tuscany at the moment and on to Paris later this week and then back here for a working weekend with partners. Life is tough. :-)

Dylan Grice of Societe Generale (based in London) is fast becoming one of...

Germany, Greece and Exiting the Eurozone

The cause célèbre these days is the potential reconstitution of the eurozone: ie, Germany leaving it, or Greece getting kicked out. To look a little deeper, today I'm sending you STRATFOR's take on these two scenarios. STRATFOR explores the geography of the continent and the historical context of...

The Death of Capital

Was it only last week I was expressing outrage that US taxpayers would have to pick up the check for Greek profligacy in the form of IMF guarantees? This morning we wake to up the sound of $250 BILLION in IMF guarantees for a European rescue fund, most of which will go to countries that are...

The Global Crisis of Legitimacy

From my friend George Friedman, founder & CEO of STRATFOR, here's my newest favorite quote concerning economic recessions: "Like forest fires, they are painful when they occur, yet without them, the forest could not survive. They impose discipline, punishing the reckless, rewarding the cautious."...

Was the Demise of the USSR a Negative Event?

Let's have a thought game. What if the Eurozone breaks up? My friend and very serious philosophical thinker Charles Gave (of GaveKal) thinks that would be a positive event. To quote his conclusion:

"But we return to the most simple of questions, namely: Was the end of the USSR a negative event?...

The Great Reflation

Let me start this week's Outside the Box by venting a little anger. It now looks like almost 30% of the Greek financing will come from the IMF, rather than just a small portion. And since 40% of the IMF is funded by US taxpayers, and that debt will be JUNIOR to current bond holders (if the rumors...

MACRO-EUROPE: The Titanic is SINKING

This is a special Outside the Box. I got this letter from my good friend Greg Weldon last night and got permission to pass it on to you. I think it illustrates the problems that the world is facing from the sovereign debt crisis that is building in Europe.

There are no good solutions here, only...

The Making of a Greek Tragedy

Back and recovering from my Strategic Investment Conference this weekend (where I decided to give myself permission not to write my usual letter, but I promise I will be back at it this next Friday!) I have spent some time pondering what we learned. It was a fabulous conference. Lacy Hunt, Dr. Gary...

Has Germany just killed the dream of a European superstate?

While the US was focused on the health care drama over the weekend, over across the pond events are rapidly deteriorating in euro land. For this week's Outside the Box I offer two columns, one from the Financial Times and another from the London Telegraph. Both describe the problems that the...

The European Union Trap

Let's start with the conclusion to today's Outside the Box:

"The underlying principle flows from the financial balance approach: the domestic private sector and the government sector cannot both deleverage at the same time unless a trade surplus can be achieved and sustained. Yet the whole world...

An Attempt to Think Through the Greek Crisis

Today I am sitting listening to Ralph Merkle lecture on nanotechnology, part of a 9-day-long series of lectures on how accelerating change in technologies of all types will affect our world. 15-hour days and intense discussions are stretching my brain, but I still have to make sure you get your...

A Five-Step Guide to Contagion

I am in Tampa meeting with Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Jeff Saut, who graciously took us out on his boat yesterday in what I am told was the first good weather Florida has had in months. I need to get out like that more. It was good to take a weekend away with no computer. But I am back...

If PIIGS Could Fly

I wrote about Greece in last week's letter. Then I ran across this column in the Financial Times by my friend Mohammed El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, and someone who qualifies to be introduced as one of the smartest men on the planet. It is short and to the point. (www.pimco.com)

Then, somehow...