Stay Out of the ROOM
John Mauldin
February 20, 2011
One
of my favorite analysts is Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. We used to get
together a whole lot more when he lived in Dallas, but he has since moved to
the wilds of Oregon. Ed’s first book, Unexpected
Returns, is a classic work that I think is a must-read for all stock market
investors.
And now he favors us with yet another book, called Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights, in which he takes on the mostly silly research,
done by so many analysts, that purports to show what an investor can expect to
make from his retirement portfolio over time. I can’t tell you how disastrous
this simplistic analysis can be for retirees.
This week’s Outside the Box is an excerpt from this latest book.
From Amazon:
“Probable Outcomes continues the Crestmont
Research tradition of full-color charts and graphs that enable investors and
advisors to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the
stock market. The unique combination of investment science and investment art
explores the market from several perspectives, and addresses the implications
for a broad range of investors. Ed Easterling delivers an insightful analysis
of the likely course for the stock market over the 2010 decade. Investors and advisors
will benefit from this timely outlook and its message of reasonable
expectations and value-added investing. This essential resource provides a
comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles that drive the stock
market. Based
on years of research, Probable Outcomes offers sensible conclusions
that will empower you to take action, guide your investment choices during the
current period of below-average returns, and allow you to invest with
confidence, whatever your financial strategy.”
I can’t recommend this book strongly enough. If you
are retiring or thinking about doing so and think you can safely take 5% a
year, please, please read this book. You can get it out www.Amazom.com/probable (http://www.amazon.com/Probable-Outcomes-Ed-Easterling/dp/1879384825)
And now let’s turn to Ed’s insights.
Your
starting to feel human again analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
JohnMauldin@2000wave.com
Stay Out of the ROOM
An Excerpt from Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights
By Ed Easterling
Copyright 2010, Crestmont Research
Al Pacino, Dionne Warwick,
Fran Tarkenton, Jack Nicklaus, Mario Andretti, Peter Fonda, Raquel Welch, Ringo
Starr, and Smokey Robinson—what do they have in common with secular stock
market cycles?
They were all born in 1940
and were subsequently impacted by secular bull markets. The choice of that
year, which is not precise but was chosen for...
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