Perspectives on the Crisis in Europe
John Mauldin
October 31, 2011
Este artículo no está disponible en español. Para su comodidad, aquí está la versión en idioma Inglés.
This week's Outside the Box will be
unusual. Rather than one essay, I give you a number of short ones, and links
that are representative of the confusion that is Europe, along with a little
history. As I noted this weekend, last week's Eurozone announcement
was short of details, and very little of the real work had been done. Merkel
has to get her own country on board, keep the other nations that are in trouble
from demanding haircuts, and keep the markets from trashing Italian and Spanish
debt. Berlusconi has to figure out how to get the Italian budget balanced while
staying out of jail and "balancing" his social calendar. Maybe he can
dollar-cost average with a 70-year-old date? (Sorry, that was snarky, but it is
so easy.)
Europe's problems will visit shores all over the world. China
will not come to the rescue, at least not cheaply. It is becoming increasingly
unclear where they will get the money without ECB participation, but that is
VERY euro bearish.
I don't want to seem like I am piling on Euroland, but they
are the crisis du jour. And it's just a matter of time until it's the US. Sigh.
And lest I forget again, let me say a special thanks to Joan
McCullough for pointing me last week to Mike Masters, who was very helpful in
understanding the intricacies ofcredit default swaps and their implications.
Another busy week and lots of airplanes. It will be my first
time ever on Aer Lingus, as I fly to Ireland. This weekend will be fun, and
even though I will do a few speeches, it will b a very different crowd than I
normally speak to. No PowerPoints, just explanations of how the world works to
average people – while professional stand-up comedians try and keep me
honest! We shall see how that works.
Your keeping it simple analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
JohnMauldin@2000wave.com
From David
Zervos (of Jeffries and Company), writing this morning:
Seeing Greek bond investors take a 50 percent haircut, the
10yr BTP/Bund spread back to the August wides above 400 and the 10yr OAT/Bund
spread north of 100 at the same time spoos have rallied 20 percent and CDX HY
has fallen nearly 300bps over the past month is about as good as it gets for
our "Fed Reflation vs European Detonation" view of the world. We are
heading into the final few laps of the 2011 race with US equity...
Comments
Walter Bruno
Nov. 5, 2011, 11:58 a.m.
Mr. Papanicolou evidences a lack of analytical capabilities in his reply to Walter Bruno`s comments. His emotional statements might hide an endeavor to appease Greek`s bad conscience for playing havoc in Europe and/or justifying the extraction of additional billions from German and European taxpayers.
Nobody would claim that during the German occupation in WWII, Greek casualties did not happen. However, as stated below ” there was never a policy in place to harm Greece or to plunder the country. Germany`s sole purpose of being there was to avert an Italian defeat and to prevent the Anglos from entering the country thus, gaining a bridgehead to invade continental Europe. Yes, ambushing partisans, in today`s jargon terrorists or freedom fighters (take your pick) mainly, communists and their financial supporters, were persecuted with German efficiency”. This, of course also meant that “innocent” (?) villagers were shot for reprisal if partisans did not come forward after having killed German solders. A practice not uncommon on both sides during the War. So much to the “monuments upon monuments in so many Greek villages”. Apart from the fact that monuments in Greece prove little. They could also express a patriotic attitude after the war ie,” keeping up with the Smiths”, sorry Smithios. Last not least, the 10 percent figure of population losses claimed, is more than doubtful as some other figures from victors after the war. Even your compatriot David Zervos admits that the Greece had lost more people during the civil war and exodus through British and Americans fanning it , than through German occupation. Has only one Greek ever claimed compensation from them? ” Intentional famine “, caused by the occupation. I challange this statement as defamatory. Again, father, a contemporary witness in Greece complained repeatedly to his wife at home that often he and his staff had to eat the same dish ie. duck or fish, for weeks in a row. Conclution: No conspiracy theory. Fact is : Greece, an agricultural country was unable to feed its own population. Sitting in coffee houses waiting for food deliveries from abroad, during wartimes did not work. It worked, however, for a couple of years after joining the EU and especially, the euro zone with EU ( German) subsidies, low German backed interest rates and fraudulent financial advice from Wall Street. Greece should wake up and shed their southern way to do business. Probably, mankind, however, will reach Mars earlier than Greeks changing attitudes.
Source: JohnMauldin.com (http://s.tt/13GB5)
Walter Bruno
Nov. 2, 2011, 6:26 a.m.
Perspectives on the Crises in Europe- A Reply to David Zervos (of Jeffries and Company)
From Dr.Walter Stolber,Switzerland
David Zervos recapitulates some known and unknown historical episodes of Greek`s recent history. Some amusing like Italians` desire to drink coffee rather than fighting the war their leader Mussolini had declared against Greece. Others, less correct when claiming that the Germans who rushed in to rescue the Italiens from being defeated “ravashed the country”. In fact, there was never a policy in place to harm Greece or to plunder the country. To the contrary, Greece was admired by many influential Germans as the craddle of European culture. Their sole purpose of being there was to avert the Anglos from entering the country thus, gaining a bridgehead to invade continental Europe. Yes, ambushing partisans, in today`s jargon terrorists or freedom fighters (take your pick) mainly, communists and their financial supporters, were persecuted with German efficiency.
For support and amusement some personal notes: Father, a director for the German Reichsbank was sent to Greece from Berlin headquarter to administer monetary policy. From his personal home leave visits and letters to his family, it is known that he was welcome at the Greek National Bank, never had felt threatened or unwanted, neither in Thesaloniki nor Athens. Indeed from the Greek King, he received a high medal for salutary work in favor of a grateful country.
Not yet convinced, Mr. Zervos? Here, an other delightful story from father`s experience of Germans “ravaging Greece”. Due to a friend, Director of a hosiery back in Germany, father was able to buy silky nightgowns for his Greek secretaries (in war-time, who can be choosy?). What a surprise when the same secretaries proudly showed up in these nightgowns for the annual New Year celebration- family style at the Greek National Bank, under German control!
Back to the thrust of Mr. Zervos endeavors insinuations and thesis that foreign bad guys in recent history- Germans, British and Americans, the later two even more thoroughly than Germans were fanning civil war and exodus- were GUILTY for today`s economic mess in Greece.
Glancing into Greek`s past, one has to conclude, however, that Zervos assertions are plainly wrong. Fact is that the country has a very long tradition of governmental deceit, lying and incompetence dating back to the Middle Ages when German Emperors and others learnt their lessons in that part of Europe. More recently, members of the “UNION MONTETAIRE LATINE” which Greece joined in 1868 learnt a similar lesson . Greece was thrown out ot that union in 1908, let us call it diplomatically, due to incorrect behavior. The Swiss ambassador to France at that time is quoted ” it was a mistake to accept Greece a member to our union”.( One has to wonder which excuse Mr. Zervos might come up with to justify this sober event in his former home country: the Turks, eventually?). A precursor to what can be expected when today`s political establishment in central Europe has matured.
There might be some hope that the learning process has started. A few days ago, French President Sarkozy was quoted of having come with the same conclusion as the Swiss ambassador some hundred years ago.
History seems repeating itself. Unfortunately, however, for taxpayers and markets this political learning process will become ever more costly with each passing day.
Duncan Hume
Nov. 1, 2011, 1:51 p.m.
It is often suggested that Greece or Italy (or other) fiscal collapse will result in the end of the Euro. It is more likely that the Euro will continue. As weak members of the eurozone are expelled the Euro will probably initially strengthen. The eurozone grew country by country, it may well end the same way.
chip rohlke
Nov. 1, 2011, 8:34 a.m.
I’ve been saying for 30 years that God has to pull down the idol of Mammon in the West to get the hearts of people again. Prosperity is fine for the outward man but does little for the inward…in fact it usually destroys it.
Most of us put so much time and effort into acquiring and keeping Mammon and so very little into our spiritual life. One lasts but a few short years and offers little real hope in the face of old age, disease and death. The other holds promise for eternity though the cost to follow Christ may be everything you have in this world including your life.
Seems to me we are so worried about economics we have little time or energy to think about God. Somehow I don’t think Christ died on the cross for nothing…and it’s a world tragedy that few seem to truly appreciate and apprehend the work done there.
Chaplain Chip Rohlke