Converging On The Horizon
John Mauldin
July 24, 2011
Este artículo no está disponible en español. Para su comodidad, aquí está la versión en idioma Inglés.
This
week’s Outside the Box is with an old friend to long-time readers, Ed
Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed is usually on the bullish side, but his
research of late points to a few warning signs that say some cycle convergences
may be pointing to problems. And that coincides with my macro concerns. As
usual, lots of charts and data, but easy to read and understand. And, for those
with stock market investments, very thought-provoking and timely.
I
write this at 34,000 feet on the way back to Dallas. I met with a few Congressmen
this morning and then ten Senators (!) this afternoon. It seems that some of
them had read Endgame and rounded up
a rather impressive group to come hear me speak for about 90 minutes. No Powerpoint,
just off the cuff, with lots of very pointed questions, and they were taking
notes (mostly). Some have been my long-time readers (go figure). It was
bipartisan. Actually tripartisan, as independent Joe Lieberman was there, and
asked some very hard questions. They cut me no slack and I gave no quarter. It
was a very frank discussion. This is a group that is quite worried (I should
say seriously worried) about our future, and they let me know there were more
like them. On both sides of the aisle. It was actually somewhat encouraging, except
that they are not optimistic. There was a sense of palpable concern that nothing
might be done until we have a crisis, and so they realize the need to act. They
are working to get their fellow Senators on board. Maybe there is hope. Without
naming names, I was particularly impressed with the questions from a “Tea
Party” Senator when I talked about the “glide-path option” and what going too
fast would mean – as in a depression. I think he got it. We’ll see. He
took the most notes, although Portman (who ran OMB so has a serious resumé and
credibility on budgets) was going through paper rather fast as well.
They
grilled me on the debt ceiling, and I gave it my best; but I think the debt
ceiling is a temporary sideshow to the whole deficit issue. They truly were getting
the “hitting the wall” if we don’t get the deficit under control. I left a lot
of books and was surprised that more than a few came with their own copies to
have me sign. Senator Dan Coats set up the meeting, and Rob Portman helped
round up the group. Getting that many Senators in a room is not easy. And a few
of my heroes were in the room, too. It was a very humbling experience for your
already humble analyst.
As
an aside, neither the Congressmen (some of whom are in the GOP leadership) nor
any of the Senators have a clue as to how the debt-ceiling issue will work out.
There were lots of guesses and speculation. One of the “Gang of Six” was there,
and he had no idea what would happen.
Small
self-promotion: you should get Endgame
and read it. If Senators are reading it and marking it up, maybe you should
take a look. http://www.amazon.com/Endgame.
Ok,
we are landing, so it’s time to hit the send button. More later.
Your can’t believe this
life analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
JohnMauldin@2000wave.com
Converging On The Horizon
By Ed Easterling
July 21, 2011
Copyright 2011, Crestmont Research (www.CrestmontResearch.com)
The end is near! Stock market history and earnings
cycle history are converging. As a result, the market is likely to be down for
the year 2011 or 2012. If not, then it will have been different this time.
Crestmont’s research focuses primarily on long-term
secular stock market cycles and their fundamental drivers. Inside of the
secular periods are short-term...
Comments
Michael Saunders
July 26, 2011, 7:22 p.m.
That is a wonderful opportunity to intimately, and meaningfully download with Washington. It speaks volumes about the our analyst. Keep up the good work.
Yes - all very good analysis of the market above and I believe many of us have positioned accordingly, and that in itself will have interesting consequences - more on that later.
What I did want to comment on is the wider picture as the above analysis seems US Dow focused. For the last 2 years I have resided in Australia with frequent trips to Asiana / China and what I see down here is ongoing growth. Economic activity driven by peoples desire to improve their lot. There is a lot of desire, a lot of energy down here. And there are a lot of people down here.
Success is being registered down here - luxury items from clothes to cars are in high demand. I would imagine that these people are to some extent being cautious too.
Both my investment manager and I both sold down our equity positions earlier this year. We’re sitting on a lot of cash. But so are US investors. So are people around the world - did I hear that $9T in the US alone?
And we’re all waiting for the moment to jump and buy something!
There will be more kick-the-can / muddle through on both sides of the Atlantic. Meantime - the global cash mountain continues to grow. Should be interesting.
Tex Norton
July 26, 2011, 7:04 a.m.
John: I wonder if you realize how frightening your intro comments are? Here you were talking with the movers-and-shakers and they have NO idea what’s going to happen? Now that’s scary! Just what are those folks doing every day?
Mark Friedland
July 26, 2011, 5:53 a.m.
What a great way to analyze market trends. It makes sense, but I have not seen this type of analysis before. Gives a good sense of the probability of upside (downside) for the coming year. I guess the question is whether we are still in the secular bear market or are 2 years in to a new secular bull market.
Tony Dowell
July 26, 2011, 5:23 a.m.
One of the best macroeconomic explanations I’ve seen.
Makes sense.
Jeffrey Hillman
July 26, 2011, 1:40 a.m.
Mr. Mauldin-
My greatest source of hope for our economy (and country) now comes from the fact that a number of our government’s leaders have asked your opinion. I’m amazed, yet pleased, that they are looking for viewpoints from people such as yourself that have a truly objective and thorough analysis of the current state of our macro situation.