2012 Investment Themes
John Mauldin
January 9, 2012
这篇文章是不是在中国发售。为了您的方便，这里是英语语言版本。
As my
good friend Gary Shilling says, in leading off his piece on 2012 investment
themes, which is this week's OTB, "This year is just the first step in the
long-run journey that will continue to be dominated by The Age of Deleveraging"
– which also just happens to be the title of Gary's latest book. Whether
you call it that or call it the End Game, as I have, it shapes up as a
profoundly different and challenging era for all of us. Gary identifies 9
causes of slow global growth in the years ahead:
1. U.S.
consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving
spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the
goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.
2.
Financial deleveraging will reverse the trend that financed much global growth
in recent years.
3.
Increased government regulation and involvement in major economies will stifle
innovation and reduce efficiency.
4. Low
commodity prices will limit spending by commodity-producing lands.
5.
Developed countries are moving toward fiscal restraint.
6. Rising
protectionism will slow–even eliminate–global growth.
7. The
housing market will be weak due to excess inventories and loss of investment
appeal.
8.
Deflation will curtail spending as buyers anticipate lower prices.
9. State
and local governments will contract.
Gary has always been prescient in
looking ahead – witness his call nearly a year ahead of the Great Housing
Debacle that commenced in '07 – but you don't just want to know what's
coming, you want to know what to do about it; and that's exactly what Gary is
going to run down for you, sector by sector and asset by asset, in the
following pages.
I note that this piece is just an
excerpt from the January issue of Gary's INSIGHT
newsletter. OTB readers can get the entire 48-page tour de force, and a full
year's subscription, plus the Jan. 2013 issue as a bonus, for $275 via email,
by calling them at 888-346-7444 or 973-467-0070. Be sure to mention Outside the Box to
get the special rate and free issue.
Now let's check out Gary's investing themes for
the coming year.
Your antsy about 2012 analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
JohnMauldin@2000wave.com
2012 Investment Themes
(excerpted
from the January 2012 edition of A. Gary Shilling's INSIGHT)
Our
investment themes for 2012 are based on our economic, financial and political
outlooks for this year as well as on our long-term forecast. After all, this
year is just the first step in the long-run journey that will continue to be
dominated by The Age of Deleveraging, as discussed in detail in our
recent book with that title. This age, which began in 2007 and probably has
another five to...
Comments
James Chaillet
Jan. 16, 10:34 p.m.
Interesting, and most of it makes investing sense. The healthcare investing theme needs a little more of a note of caution, however. As a physician, seeing 30-40 patients a day, I am starting to notice the negative effect on utilization of increasing deductibles, coinsurance and co-payments and the growing number of uninsured. A lot of business is Medicare and Medicaid and the latter, sooner or later, will face more cutbacks. I suspect Medicare will continue to grow until it bankrupts the county.
JOSEPH HAGEDORN
Jan. 14, 1:31 p.m.
Hopefully, buying mutual funds with the proper companies will help in “the age of deleveraging.” I am disappointed that deleveraging means I should not buy a new, smaller house. Watch out for unscrupulous real estate agents who will try to get you to sell at a very low price. Two agents tried this on me, but I did not take the bait in that: to establish the price for my house, they showed low priced supposedly comparable houses that were much smaller and older than my house and not close to my house, and failed to show a high priced comparable for a smaller house behind my house. Subsequently, comparable houses like mine, near my house on my street, sold for very high prices in a depressed market. As a result and also because of deleveraging, I do not want to get involved in this very risky housing market and will stay in my 32 year old house with a paid off mortgage.
Michael Gorback
Jan. 11, 6:43 a.m.
I think he’s sadly mistaken about medical office space. As a physician who owns medical office AND facility space I will say that IMHO this has peaked.
1. Medicare fees have been stagnant and have not kept up with inflation for about a decade. Doctors are declaring bankruptcy (google this for all of you who still believe in the fat cat doctor myth). The survivors are going to be looking for cheaper space, not fancy new construction (expensive) space.
2. Due to declining reimbursement and increasing costs, combined with a worsening regulatory environment and the hassle of running an office (I am solo practice and have SEVEN employees just to make it work) more and more doctors are going to work for hospitals and corporations. The hospitals and corporations will build their own office space.
3. The medical facility market is saturated. Laws have been passed that essentially killed off new physician-owned hospitals. The ambulatory surgery facility market is saturated. The time for ASC building and investment was the 90s and early 00s.
4. There is an empty newly built hospital down the street from me. It was started before the crash and when it came time to roll over the note the bank declined and the thing died before construction could be completed. This was a joint venture between a major hospital system and over 100 doctors and it went under.
In summary, doctors will have less money to spend on rent and the number who will be renting in the private sector is rapidly diminishing as doctors opt for employment by corporations and hospitals that have their own office space.
Maybe I’m wrong but from my boots on the ground POV medical office space is radioactive.
scott grider
Jan. 10, 7:44 a.m.
well, i have to agree with Perrin…...we get more QE by may…maybe march….whenever DOW hits 9400 on EU blowup…..
John,
jumped the biggest snook of my life new years day in 10,000 islands area florida….YEEEHAAAA!
from one of your last ‘thoughts__’ post.
secret is drink tart cherry juice, its ‘lights out for gout’ (uric acid build-up), course this is a specific incidence solution and does not change your body chemistry causing it.
thats the only thing i can think of when u say you cannot metabolize alcohol.
coupla ozs. alky a day is great for the vascular system.
i know some drinkers that died soon after quitting-heart attack….blood thickens without alcohol…..so for gods sake PLEASE take fish oil daily to counter this.
we have solutions for liver enzyme problems too.
send me an email i want to help.
scott
George Pacocha
Jan. 10, 7:31 a.m.
Mr. Maudlin:
Thanks for your work, I’m a loyal reader.
The economist tends to look at inflation or deflation as a macro statistic. In the real world, it’s a micro-economic event. I don’t care what the published inflation number is…it contains a bunch of stuff that doesn’t apply to me and chances are the government is performing some sort of statistical shenanagans when they publish it. My inflation is the cost of gas, groceries and whatever specific things I buy—that inflation is going to effect my economic behavior.
Perrin Gower
Jan. 10, 5:54 a.m.
No gold ? Thank you, sir, I’ll take yours…................Treasuries ? Like we can service ~100 trillion 0f debt ? What cave do you live in ?
perrin gower
mt vernon, va