The Last Half
By John Mauldin
September 10, 2010
1284173112
The Last Half
But It’s More Than the Deficit
Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus
Pity the Greeks
The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway
Amsterdam, Malta, Zurich, Mallorca, Denmark, and London
There
are a number of economic forces in play in today's world, not all of them
working in the same direction, which makes choosing policies particularly
difficult. Today we finish what we started last week, the last half of the last
chapter I have to write to get a rough draft of my forthcoming book, The End Game. (Right now, though, it
appears this will actually be the third chapter.) We will start with a few
paragraphs to help you remember where we were (or you can click here to read the first part of
the chapter).
But
first, I recorded two Conversations yesterday, with the CEOs of two biotech
firms that are working on some of the most exciting new technologies I have
come across. I found them very informative, and we will post them as soon as we
get them transcribed.
For new readers, Conversations with John Mauldin is
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leading up-and-coming biotech companies; and I also do a Conversation with
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I recently recorded a Conversation with Mohamed
El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, who is one of the smartest human beings I
know, as well as one of the nicest. As you can see, I can get some rather
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Click on the Subscribe button, and join me and my friends for some very
interesting Conversations. (I know the price says $199 on the site, but for now
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All of the previous Conversations are posted and
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Conference a few months ago. I do work hard to make sure my subscribers get
more than their money's worth. And now, to the letter.
The Last Half
A $1.5-trillion-dollar yearly
increase in the national debt means that someone has to invest that much in
Treasury bonds. Let's look at where the $1.5 trillion might come from. Let's
assume that all of our trade deficit comes back to the US and is invested in US
government bonds. That could be as much as $500 billion, although over time
that number has been falling. That still leaves $1 trillion that needs to be
found to be invested in US government debt (forget about the...
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