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12 posts tagged with "Yield Curve"
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Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real...
Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am
Stuck in the middle with you!
- Stealers Wheel, 1974
The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy is...
I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield curve is our most reliable indicator of future recessions. I am often asked whether a yield...
There is an arcane debate going on in economic circles. How fast can the economy grow without inflation becoming a problem? The answer may be, not as fast as we thought. And the answer matters because the people who have their fingers on the interest-rate trigger take this arcane stuff...
This week I am in La Jolla for my annual Strategic Investment Conference. It is packed, and of course I am quite busy, so not much time to write my regular e-letter. But a few weeks ago, Rich Smith from The Motley Fool did a fairly wide-ranging interview with me that just came out this week,...
This week we look at the possible direction of interest rates both at the long end and the short end. Bottom line: history suggests there is some serious volatility in the future on the long end of the interest rate curve later in the year. The yield curve and the 6/50 Rule when looked at...
This week we look at an interesting index of greed and fear, look at the yield curve and the new 30 year Treasury bond, the latest unemployment numbers and a lot more. What do they tell us? Is there a theme or at least a rhyme? Or is it all random noise sent by the market gods to lull us back...
Last week we started a series on a very important book by friend Joe Ellis called "Ahead of the Curve."
We continue this week looking at specific indicators that Joe thinks give us a heads up when the economy is about to slow down and the stock market will being a bear market. I am then going...
The level of attention to the recent and mild inversion of the yield curve has bordered on hysteria in the media. Does it portend a recession? Or is, as Ethan Harris, the chief economist of Lehman Brothers suggests, the bond market simply on drugs? This week we pause in our series on trade...
While there has been a lot happening in the markets, sometimes it is important to drop back and look at larger issues. This week we are going to explore a new way to look at (and perhaps find!) that most mysterious of all the creatures among the flora and fauna of the investment world - the elusive...
This week we look at the probability of a future recession raining on the current economic parade, looking at two indicators which offer insight into our future. I further explore the interest rate environment and the risks associated with Fed policy. There is a lot to cover, and it should be...
Since I wrote the last e-letter about my belief that we are now in a total bear market, the Dow has collapsed another 8%. The NASDAQ is down more. In this issue I want to follow up on some questions, review some previous important predictions and offer some advice. Also, we are going to follow up...
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