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80 posts tagged with "The Fed"
In what is the shortest e-letter I have written in years, for which many of you will be grateful, this week we once again delve into Fed policy. Should they raise rates in June? The even tougher question is "Will they?" Plus we look at a very disturbing report that Chinese firms are unable to...
I returned very early this morning from the Las Vegas Money Show, where all flights to Dallas were cancelled last night due to the odd tornado or two in the area. I went back to the hotel, had a dinner with friends, went to the room and began to research the hot questions on the minds of many of...
With the theme song (circa 1979) from The Clash as our background music - Should I Stay or Should I Go? - we explore whether the Fed will raise interest rates this summer or postpone any actions until after the election. We look at a prediction by bond maven Jim Bianco, whose track record on these...
Free trade, jobs, fairness and the economy are all front and center in the coming political debate. As politicians respond to polls, we are going to hear a lot more about them in the coming months. Most of what you hear will be VPG - Verbalized Political Garbage. It will demonstrate that most...
This week we are going to visit my Worry Closet, where things goes bump in the night. There are many writers who assure us that those sounds are imaginary and I should go back to sleep. But others suggest the sounds may emanate from some real substance, and that their corpus is growing in the dark....
This is always a fairly intensive research time of the year for me, as I begin to format my thoughts about the possible trends for the coming year. Next week, I will sit down on Thursday and Friday to write my annual forecast edition. It will be a shorter letter this week, as I husband my energy...
Today we look at recent Fed statements, which give us more than a few clues as to what is really happening in the economy, plus a few thoughts on the markets.
The song in my mind the past few days has been "Free at Last." My book in progress is finished - all 24 chapters! It's in the hands of...
Two weeks ago we examined the changes in our lives. Last week we looked at imbalances in the economy. This week the theme that I see in my daily reading is the large number of major contradictions apparent in the markets. There are so many contradictions we will not get to them all, but let's...
This week we review what I learned on my trip to Geneva; we look at a way to invest in the Chinese Renminbi; I offer some thoughts on master strategist Paul McCulley latest essay; I ponder the implications of Bill Bonner's soon to be released best-seller; and, I get more concerned (and vocal) about...
This week we look at what Greenspan really said and what he didn't say; the real reason why the bond market reacted so violently (not what the headlines would lead us to believe); what History tells us about the volatility of the bond markets and what we can expect in the future. It should make for...
Is this a critical time in the bond market or are we simply back to where we were a few months ago before the recent madness? If it was temporary insanity, what caused it? Why is the dollar rising? Why have the Japanese sold more foreign bonds in the past few weeks than in the past few years? Who...
It seems to be the economic silly season. This week we will explore some of the more absurd ideas to make their way to my reading material this week. I call these to your attention not to make fun of them (well, maybe a little), but because they offer an excellent opportunity for enlightenment. We...
This week I had the pleasure of talking with Nobel Prize economist Dr. Harry Markowitz. We discuss that conversation, and how it ties in with my continued unease with deflation, Paul McCulley's recent essay, the lack of candor from the Federal Reserve, the implications of the dollar bear market,...
Today we explore the very interesting differences between what the Fed told us about its last interest rate cut and what they actually said in the meeting. Then we look at my analysis of how Japan can have deflation when the money supply grows 21%, which will annoy the gold bugs among my...
Today we are going to look at a very important speech by new Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke. I think this is one of the more important letters I have written in a while. The speech has received a lot of publicity for some of it's speculations about potential Fed policy. Some seem to find...
Today we are going to try and help you understand the strange action in the stock and bond markets. We are going to look into the future, and see if we can get a feel for what's around the curve in the road. Is it smooth driving, or are there some rocks in the road we need to avoid?
Last week I...
What an amazing week. The data deluge as I came back into the office from Florida was staggering, and I write this letter late at night after a day of reading and thinking.
Faith is an interesting thing. "The substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen," said Paul. Invisible though it may be, faith makes men do things that all the facts in the world, lined end upon end, could not provoke them to do.
Is the stock market the Little Engine That Could? Have I blown it when I suggested you get out a few weeks ago as the Dow rises another 7% and the NASDAQ is up 10% since then and 30% since the recent bottom? Am I early or am I simply wrong? Is there something really different this time?
The Investor Sentiment Index is 82
The Investor Sentiment Momentum Index is 52
The Investor Sentiment Uptrends Index is 20.3
The Sector Rotation model switches from Energy Services to Banking
What a week in the markets!
These are the times that try men's soul's, and their pocketbooks.
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