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80 artículos etiquetados con "The Fed"
Featured Video: Papic, Faber, Mauldin, Barnes and Tepper Debate Fed’s QE Strategy
October 7, 2011
Watch special video of Marko Papic, Marc Faber, John Mauldin, Martin Barnes, and Jonathan Tepper as they debate the Fed's QE strategy. Jon Sundt, president and CEO of Altegris, moderates. This lively panel discussion was filmed at the Strategic Investment Conference 2011 in La Jolla, CA.
推绳子
September 24, 2010
本周，美联储对他们的结会声明稍作了修改，但那短短几句话却包含了深刻的含义。好像他们正在为新一轮定量宽松做准备，如果他们认为情况有需要的话。一万亿美元的新资金可能很快将会注入到系统中。今晚，我们就来探讨新一轮定量宽松可能会产生的一些影响。亲爱的读者朋友，我们只能是做一些推测，因为我们正在进入一个未知的领域。没有地图，只有理论，而且这些理论都各持己见。（注意：这期通讯包含很多图表，打印出来会比较长。）
不过先通知大家，下周三，也就是9月29日（太平洋标准时间上午9点/东部标准时间中午12点），我将与Altegris投资公司的总裁兼首席执行官乔恩-桑特（Jon...
美联储会不会加息
May 22, 2010
到处都在说我们已进入“V”型复苏。而且有迹象显示确实是这样。今天，我们就来看其中一些迹象，然后谈论美联储将会在何时加息。我们打开话题，看看相关证据。是否有足够证据让我们确信确实已进入“V”型复苏呢？我认为是有的。（在文章结尾处，我将提到我在未来几个月里将以演讲嘉宾身份到温哥华和旧金山参加的两个会议。）
不过先说一些内务管理上的事情。这个通讯的发送率不稳定已经有好一段时间了，我们知道这个问题。很多长期读者写信或致电来问我们为什么将他们从发送名单上删除了。他们不断重新订阅之后还是收不到信。这是个问题。我的个人邮箱也曾经断收过一些知名电子信息服务者的信息。给您带来任何不便，我们表示抱歉。这里跟大...
货币周转率的作用
March 12, 2010
本周，我们来回顾一个非常重要的知识，即货币周转率。 如果我们不理解基本知识，是很难明白全球经济目前所处的境地有多艰难的，更难知道我们将会前往何方。
在进入正题之前，我想先通知我的“对话”订户，我们已经发布了近期和两位对冲基金经理录制的对话，他们分别是达拉斯海曼顾问公司（Hayman Advisors）的凯尔-巴斯（ Kyle Bass）（还有他们的员工），以及伦敦资产管理公司的休-亨德利（ Hugh Hendry）。 我们的谈话围绕于，我们大家一致认为哪个国家有可能成为下一个希腊，而且程度将远比希腊更严重。 整个谈话过程令人着迷。
下周三，我们将公布与享有Stratfor...
寻找针头的泡沫
February 5, 2010
格林斯潘和伯南克应当看到住房和其他资产存在泡沫并采取行动，还是我们应该接受他们的这番辩解：在泡沫发生之前是没办法知道有泡沫的？ 有研究表明，他们应当知道，最至少不应该允许决策者们再说：“我怎么会知道？”这样的话。本周，我们就一起来看一下这方面的研究。
今早就业数据出炉，结果好坏不一；不过已经比过去两年有所好转。 我们一起来仔细分析这些数据，看看它们传递的是什么信息。 最后，我们一起来研究一下市场为什么如此波动。 只有希腊存在问题，还是更多国家？ 有很多非常有趣的重要资料需要探讨。
...
当美联储停播音乐
January 15, 2010
上周，我们探究了我们所面临的、将加大2010年度的预测难度的各种不稳定因素。 在失业率还很有可能保持在10%的情况下，政府真地会像他们所说的那样大幅增税吗？ 还是更为冷静的领导人可以最终胜出？ 增税会不会导致衰退？ 市场会不会提前预料到大幅增税的影响？ 当美联储在三月末停止购买抵押贷款证券之时，抵押贷款市场将会如何反应？ 变数太多了，今天我们继续来探讨，我也继续尝试去窥视一个迷云层层的水晶球。
不过首先，比这重要很多倍的是海地正在遭遇的悲剧。 长期读者知道，我一年都会在本通讯中提几次我的挚友沃尔特-拉特曼（Walt...
2010年度预测： 不稳定之年
January 8, 2010
“身躺着，在经历自己的小挫败之后的这段时间里，我开始深信，世间万物所代表的意义其实是我们自身赋予它们的。 如果某事物与我们相称，即使它再琐屑，我们也能从中获得极大满足，而对于生活中那些具有明显对称性、但与我们内心坚守的偏见或信念相悖的事物，我们则会欣然忽略之；我们对于最具启发性的东西往往视而不见。
-- 摘自伊恩M.班克斯（Iain M. Banks）的《转变》
人不过择善言而听之
而忽略其他。
-- <摘自保罗-西蒙的《拳击手》
这期通讯将是我的第十期年度预测通讯。 时光飞逝，《前沿思考》已经进入新的十年。...
野兽潜伏
November 20, 2009
食尸鬼，幽灵，
长腿怪兽，
夜间出动的鬼怪，
慈善的上帝啊，请保佑我们不受伤害吧！
--苏格兰古老的祷告词
《野兽潜伏》是一本深受喜爱的儿童书，现在已经被拍成一部好看的电影。在投资世界，经济景观的隐蔽深处亦潜伏着一些可怕的野兽。今天，我们来看美联储的低利率政策造成的一个意外结果。
这段时间，我一直都在论证，美国和整个“发达”世界未来已经没有好的选择可选。我预见到的未来几年是低增长、跋涉前行的一种前景（要经历二次衰退之后才开始有复苏）。但这并不意味着完全没有起伏。情势也可能会迅速波动起来。让我们赶快来设置一下背景。
...
传染上阿根廷病？
October 30, 2009
我这周已经在南美了，五天里做了九场演讲，期间还有很多小会。谈话不断回到美元的前景上，不过我同样很有兴趣跟见证过阿根廷和巴西的恶性通货膨胀的基金经理和商界人士们谈话。怎么会发生这种情况？后来发现，我正在阅读的一本非常好的书就回答了这个问题。有些人认为，美国不断上升的庞大赤字以及未来的医保和社保负担（高达56万亿美元）将会把美国推向恶性通货膨胀。
本周，我们就来看一下阿根廷的经历，然后自问一下：美国有没有可能发生恶性通货膨胀。
我将援引尼尔-弗格森（Niall Ferguson）最近的著作 《货币崛起》。我把这本书和我一直以来最喜欢的经济历史书《与天为敌》...
Back to the Future Recession
April 24, 2009
This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is...
Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession
January 10, 2009
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various...
I Meant to Do That
December 19, 2008
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, but the quick answer doesn't tell us much. We...
Some Things That Just Should Not Be
December 12, 2008
There are things in today's markets that are simply astounding. They should not exist, yet they do. Why should US bills trade at negative interest? How can oil be trading at all-time highs in terms of spreads over the next year? Bank debt and bonds are trading at discounts not to be believed. Want...
The Velocity Factor
December 5, 2008
"A severe global recession will lead to deflationary pressures. Falling demand will lead to lower inflation as companies cut prices to reduce excess inventory. Slack in labour markets from rising unemployment will control labor costs and wage growth. Further slack in commodity markets as prices...
Leverage Is an 8 Letter Word
November 21, 2008
Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice as bad as the two four-letter words debt and pain (or fill in your own four-letter words). This week I try to give some insight into what is happening in the credit markets, some of it below the radar screen of most...
The Curve in the Road
October 3, 2008
The "Bailout Plan" was passed. Will it work? The answer depends on what your definition of "work" is. If by work you mean no more government intervention and no further costly programs and a functioning market, then the answer is no. But there are things it will do....
Who Holds the Old Maid?
August 29, 2008
When is the credit crisis going to end? How will we know? The credit crisis is getting ready to enter its second phase. This week we examine what that means, and what the economic environment will look like over the coming quarters. We also (sadly) re-visit Freddie and Fannie and examine the risks...
The Fed at the Crossroads
May 16, 2008
Is the economy poised for a recovery, as the stock market seems to expect? Or are we in for another few more quarters of recession and/or slow growth? In this week's letter we take a look at consumer spending, inflation, and other data to see if we can find a clue or two to give us an idea of the...
Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis
March 21, 2008
My essay in Outside the Box last Monday seemed to ignite a lot of response in the blogosphere. My basic contention was that the Fed had to act to facilitate the sale of Bear to prevent a meltdown in the markets. Many agreed, but others said Bear should have been left to hang, pointing out that a...
Muddle Through and Your Long Term Returns
March 14, 2008
Today we drop back to take a look at the economy and its long term effect on our portfolio returns. I am in Orlando this week, speaking at the Newport Advisor Conference sponsored by the Newport Group. The attendees are primarily investment advisors focused on larger retirement accounts and...
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