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18 posts tagged with "Taxes"
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I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write...
There
are a number of economic forces in play in today's world, not all of them
working in the same direction, which makes choosing policies particularly
difficult. Today we finish what we started last week, the last half of the last
chapter I have to write to get a rough draft of my forthcoming...
"...[this economic condition] has been brought about by policies which the majority of economists recommended and even urged governments to pursue. We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things."
—Friedrich August von Hayek, Nobel Speech 2010...
The debate over whether we are in for inflation or deflation was alive and well at the Agora Symposium in Vancouver this this week. It seems that not everyone is ready to join the deflation-first, then-inflation camp I am currently resident in. So in this week's letter we look at some of the causes...
Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said "One can't believe impossible things."
"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
—From...
Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the...
The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some can be quite cruel. The one we actually get is dictated by the choices we make. For the last few months I have been addressing the choices in front of us, economically speaking. Today I am going to summarize them,...
Peggy Noonan, maybe the most gifted essayist of our time, wrote a few weeks ago about the vague concern that many of us have that the monster looming up ahead of us has the potential (my interpretation) for not just plucking a few feathers from the goose that lays the golden egg (the US free-market...
A lot of bullish commentators are talking about a recovery being in the works, and they may very well be right. But it is not going to look like any recovery worthy of the name. This week we look at what I will call The Statistical Recovery. But first we take a look at what China is doing, as we...
We have avoided Armageddon, at least for now. The cost to the US taxpayer has been a few trillion. Some in the media are loudly announcing the end of the recession. But we are not out of the woods yet. There are a few more bumps in the road. Actually, some of them are quite steep hills. As big as...
We are coming to a critical inflection point, perhaps the most critical point that we have had in 70 years for the US and to a great extent the global economy. The choices we make (or that Congress and the Fed make for us) will affect not just our investment portfolios but business and our jobs for...
In fantasy novels the intrepid heroes come across a sign saying "This Way Be Dragons." Of course, they venture on, facing calamity and death, but such is the nature of fantasy novels. We live in a very real world, and if we don't turn around there will be some very nasty dragons in our future. This...
This week Professor Jeremy Siegel (author of Stocks for the Long Run)
had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal
showing that stocks are now cheap. I was on Tech Ticker,
and Henry Blodgett challenged me about my e-letter last week, where I talked about how expensive stocks are. So which is it?...
In the past week, I have been in the car coming home late from work, with the presidential debates are on the radio. It is very discouraging to listen to what passes for economic literacy among the candidates. In reality, many candidates are espousing policies that are quite dangerous at worst, or...
This week the Fed cut rates by 0.25% as I predicted, yet the long rates have risen by over 0.50% from the lows. The dollar rises, gold drops and the stock market declines. On Tuesday, I was a guest of Ron Insana and Sue Herera on CNBC's "Business Center." During the interview, Ms. Herera asked me,...
No sooner is my Muddle Through 2003 forecast out, than we get a barrage of data which gives cause for concern. Can we still Muddle Through with an increase in taxes (you read that right!), higher oil prices, more medical costs, and a slowing world economy? Is the Fed actually winning the War...
This week we are going to depart from the usual format of surveying the economic landscape for investment insights, and ask ourselves:
"What type of returns should you expect from the stock market for the next 5, 10, or 20 years?"
Over the long-term the Ibbotson study, used by stock market...
This is an important e-letter. Not only does it suggest things may get better sooner than I had previously thought, it will also be important in understanding the new Income Investment Model I will be introducing within a very short time.
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