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Waving the White Flag

A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

For quite some time in this letter I have been making the case that for the eurozone to...

The War for Spain

I fully intended to ignore Spain this week. Really, truly I did. I had my letter all planned, but then a few notes drew my attention, and the more I reflected on them, the more I realized that the inflection point that I thought the ECB had pushed down the road for at least a year with...

Complimentary Issue of The Pain in Spain Presentation

What are the major problems Spain is facing right now, and how will they impact your investments? Carmel Asset Management has written an outstanding presentation in which they analyze Spain's economic outlook, and what investors can do to prepare themselves. Simply enter your email below to...

All Spain All the Time

Last Monday I was in Paris and was asked to do a spot on CNBC London. I arrived at the studios an hour early due to a misunderstanding of the time zones, so while trying to catch up on the news I listened to CNBC. I had just written about Spain in last week's letter and guessed that was...

A Random Walk Through the Data Minefields

"I speak the truth not so much as I would, but as much as I dare:

and I dare a little more as I grow older."

- Michel de Montaigne (influential writer of the French Renaissance)

This Friday finds me sleeping later than I planned … in the lounge at the airport in Stockholm,...

Muddle Through, or Crisis?

This week I finish the two-part letter on the Endgame and give you my thoughts on the economy and how it all plays out over the next five years. This is the second part of a speech I gave last week at the Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. It is a rather bold forecast, and...

The Pain in Spain

Last week we talked about Greece. But the problems are more than just Greece. We look at two very different views of the euro, and then opposing thoughts on Spain. Is Spain a problem or not? And how can the US keep on spending? Is there a limit? There is a lot to cover in what has been an...

The Paradox of Deficits

From ghoulies and ghosties

And long-leggedy beasties

And things that go bump in the night,
Good Lord, deliver us!

--Old Scottish Prayer

There is something that is bumping around in my worry closet. The bond market is not behaving as if there is deflation in our future, and the dollar is...

Peace in Our Time

This week's letter is going to be a little shorter than normal, for which some of you are probably grateful. We are moving our offices back into the Ballpark in Arlington overlooking right center field (see more below). With the normal list of things to do, plus packing plus moving decisions, time...