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19 posts tagged with "Gold"
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The economy grew in the fourth quarter by 5.9%, the most in years. The adjusted monetary base is exploding. Bank reserves are literally through the roof. The Fed is flooding money into the system in an effort to get banks to lend. An historically normal response by banks (to increase lending) would...
This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is...
My essay in Outside the Box last Monday seemed to ignite a lot of response in the blogosphere. My basic contention was that the Fed had to act to facilitate the sale of Bear to prevent a meltdown in the markets. Many agreed, but others said Bear should have been left to hang, pointing out that a...
As the World Turns is a popular soap opera playing on American TV. It focuses, as do most soaps, on the lives and foibles of its characters, with plenty of dramatic flair. We are watching a different type of soap opera today which we could call "As the Subprime Turns. And the world is watching. It...
I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield curve is our most reliable indicator of future recessions. I am often asked whether a yield...
It's a slow Thanksgiving Friday, and I decided I would rather be writing to you than shopping in the malls. In fact, I would pay good money not to go to the malls today. Which my kids think I am because they pointed out on Thanksgiving the amazing values I am missing, particularly on items they...
"Our analysis leads us to believe that recovery is only sound if it does come from itself. For any revival which is merely due to artificial stimulus leaves part of the work of depression undone and adds, to an undigested remnant of maladjustments, new maladjustments of its own." -- Joseph...
Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2005. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four or five combined, simply reading hundreds of pages of research, looking at mountains of data all in an...
Why do we do the things we do? How can two people, or even large groups, look at the same set of facts and come to such widely different conclusions? Maybe even more important would be to ask why? Is there some bias involved? Does being a "professional" help you avoid these biases? We will examine...
Free trade, jobs, fairness and the economy are all front and center in the coming political debate. As politicians respond to polls, we are going to hear a lot more about them in the coming months. Most of what you hear will be VPG - Verbalized Political Garbage. It will demonstrate that most...
Debt and the dollar, employment and interest rates, the US economy and world trade, money supply and inflation/deflation, taxes, deficits, commodity prices, politics, war, regulation plus a host of other variables. They are all related in a very complex and dynamic fashion. Changing one of them may...
We cover the globe, currencies, the US economy, bonds, stocks, deflation, inflation, gold, oil and more!
For the last three years, making annual predictions has been relatively easy, at least as compared to this year. You try to discern the dominant theme for the year and then everything else...
Today we explore the very interesting differences between what the Fed told us about its last interest rate cut and what they actually said in the meeting. Then we look at my analysis of how Japan can have deflation when the money supply grows 21%, which will annoy the gold bugs among my...
Today we turn our attention to the question of retirement: Will the Boomer Generation be able to retire on time? Will Social Security go bankrupt? Is Harry Dent in his book The Roaring 2000s
right when he asserts that we will have a boom until approximately 2008-9 because Boomers are saving and...
September is the month set into my personal rhythms, and that of my generation, as a time to reflect upon the past and look to the future. The first week of school was always a time for review and to get a sense of what we would be looking forward to in the new school year. Even though school has...
Today we are going to think about what lies in the future for the yellow metal -- that barbarous relic:
GOLD
. Long time readers know that I am no gold bull. Indeed, I have been bearish to neutral on gold for over a decade. However, a number of economic trends are causing me to re-think my...
Our web site hosting firm has been victim to the recent nimda virus. While we are back up, we are not yet able to post this e-letter. It may be a few days. The cost of this virus world-wide is estimated in the billions. The virus was launched one week later to the minute of the World Trade Towers...
Is the stock market the Little Engine That Could? Have I blown it when I suggested you get out a few weeks ago as the Dow rises another 7% and the NASDAQ is up 10% since then and 30% since the recent bottom? Am I early or am I simply wrong? Is there something really different this time?
The Millennium Wave Investor Sentiment Index is 83, down somewhat
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Momentum Index is 42.25, still trending down
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Percentage Uptrends is 29.32, still leaping up!
The Millennium Wave Sector Model is still in Energy Services (RYVIX), with a...
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