Thoughts from the Frontline
Browse By Tags
14 posts tagged with "Economic Outlook"
Featured Video: Gary Shilling on Outlook for Global Economies
September 2, 2011
Watch exclusive video below of Dr. A. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., giving his 2011 Outlook for Global Economies and Investment Strategies. This important presentation was filmed at the Strategic Investment Conference 2011 in La Jolla, CA.
The Pain in Spain
February 19, 2010
Last week we talked about Greece. But the problems are more than just Greece. We look at two very different views of the euro, and then opposing thoughts on Spain. Is Spain a problem or not? And how can the US keep on spending? Is there a limit? There is a lot to cover in what has been an...
The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
August 14, 2009
A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment. Today we are going to further explore that concept, as it is important to have a real understanding of what is happening. This coming "recovery" is not going to feel like a typical...
Faith-Based Economics
May 15, 2009
Why does government data need to be revised so often? Is it conspiracy, as some claim, or is it methodology? And if it is methodology that leads to faulty data, then why not change the methodology? Is unemployment a lagging indicator, as conventional wisdom suggests? We look again at the underlying...
Green Shoots or Dandelion Weeds?
May 8, 2009
Go to Google. Type in "green shoots." In about a 10th of a second you will find 28,900,000 references. Scrolling through a few pages, you find a lot of references to the beginning of the end of the recession. Today we look at some data to see if we can indeed see the end. Most readers will be...
While Rome Burns
February 20, 2009
When I sit down each week to write, I essentially do what I did nine years ago when I started writing this letter. I write to you, as an individual. I don't think of a large group of people, just a simple letter to a friend. It is only half a joke that this letter is written to my one million...
Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession
January 10, 2009
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various...
The Financial Fire Trucks Are Gathering
November 26, 2008
"It will therefore be crucial that you see the world anew. That means looking from the outside in to reanalyze much that you have probably taken for granted. This will enable you to come to an understanding. If you fail to transcend conventional thinking at a time when conventional thinking is...
How Shall We Then Invest?
October 27, 2008
Warren Buffett says buy. Jeremy Grantham says it will get worse. Both are celebrated value investors. Who is right? It all depends upon your view of the third derivative of investing. Today we look at valuations in the stock market. This is the second part of a speech I have given in the past few...
Where Do We Go From Here?
October 10, 2008
I have been writing for almost a year that the next shoe to drop on US banks would be commercial construction lending. Today we look at some hard numbers. We look across the pond to sort out the problems in Europe. We look at the consequences of the losses stemming from Lehman. Then we look at one...
The Rise of A New Asset Class
August 1, 2008
This week I am in Maine on vacation with my son, and next week is my daughter Tiffani's wedding, so for the next two weeks I am going to send an updated version of a speech I have been giving the past few months on what I think is the likely potential for the rise of a brand new asset class. It is...
The World Will Not End
July 18, 2008
Housing starts rose 9% and the market cheerleaders proclaimed that we have seen a bottom. But not if you look at the actual numbers. New unemployment claims were OK, but not if you look at the actual numbers. And inflation was simply ugly, no matter what numbers you look at. However, oil is down...
Whither the Price of Oil?
May 23, 2008
Why has the price of oil risen so much in the past few months? Is it a supply and demand issue as some believe; or is it because of an out-of-control futures market driven by the proliferation of commodity index funds and rampant speculation, as everyone tries to get in on the rise in commodity...
The Muddle Through Question
April 18, 2008
A few weeks ago I asked for readers to send me questions and said I would try and answer them while I was in Switzerland. Some of them were quite good and have given me ideas for whole newsletters but will require a lot of research. But a lot of them fell into two basic camps. This week we look at...
Recent Articles
- Waving the White Flag
- A Graphic Presentation
- A Gold Standard?
- A Little Bull’s Eye Investing
- The War for Spain
- Complimentary Issue of The Pain in Spain Presentation
- It’s All About Jobs
- All Spain All the Time
- Featured Video: John Mauldin Presentation on Global Debt Crisis
- A Random Walk Through the Data Minefields
Popular Tags
Past Archives
- May 2012 (2)
- April 2012 (5)
- March 2012 (6)
- February 2012 (4)
- January 2012 (4)
- December 2011 (6)
- November 2011 (4)
- October 2011 (9)
- September 2011 (9)
- August 2011 (4)
- July 2011 (5)
- June 2011 (4)
- May 2011 (4)
- April 2011 (5)
- March 2011 (4)
- February 2011 (4)
- January 2011 (5)
- December 2010 (4)
- November 2010 (4)
- October 2010 (5)
- September 2010 (4)
- August 2010 (4)
- July 2010 (5)
- June 2010 (4)
- May 2010 (4)
- April 2010 (4)
- March 2010 (4)
- February 2010 (4)
- January 2010 (4)
- December 2009 (3)
- November 2009 (4)
- October 2009 (5)
- September 2009 (4)
- August 2009 (4)
- July 2009 (4)
- June 2009 (3)
- May 2009 (5)
- April 2009 (4)
- March 2009 (4)
- February 2009 (4)
- January 2009 (5)
- December 2008 (3)
- November 2008 (4)
- October 2008 (5)
- September 2008 (4)
- August 2008 (5)
- July 2008 (3)
- June 2008 (4)
- May 2008 (5)
- April 2008 (4)
- March 2008 (4)
- February 2008 (5)
- January 2008 (4)
- December 2007 (3)
- November 2007 (4)
- October 2007 (4)
- September 2007 (4)
- August 2007 (4)
- July 2007 (4)
- June 2007 (4)
- May 2007 (4)
- April 2007 (3)
- March 2007 (5)
- February 2007 (4)
- January 2007 (4)
- December 2006 (5)
- November 2006 (4)
- October 2006 (4)
- September 2006 (5)
- August 2006 (4)
- July 2006 (4)
- June 2006 (5)
- May 2006 (4)
- April 2006 (4)
- March 2006 (5)
- February 2006 (4)
- January 2006 (4)
- December 2005 (5)
- November 2005 (4)
- October 2005 (4)
- September 2005 (5)
- August 2005 (4)
- July 2005 (5)
- June 2005 (4)
- May 2005 (4)
- April 2005 (5)
- March 2005 (3)
- February 2005 (4)
- January 2005 (4)
- December 2004 (4)
- November 2004 (3)
- October 2004 (5)
- September 2004 (4)
- August 2004 (4)
- July 2004 (5)
- June 2004 (4)
- May 2004 (4)
- April 2004 (5)
- March 2004 (4)
- February 2004 (4)
- January 2004 (5)
- December 2003 (3)
- November 2003 (4)
- October 2003 (5)
- September 2003 (4)
- August 2003 (5)
- July 2003 (4)
- June 2003 (4)
- May 2003 (4)
- April 2003 (4)
- March 2003 (4)
- February 2003 (4)
- January 2003 (5)
- December 2002 (4)
- November 2002 (5)
- October 2002 (4)
- September 2002 (4)
- August 2002 (5)
- July 2002 (4)
- June 2002 (4)
- May 2002 (5)
- April 2002 (4)
- March 2002 (5)
- February 2002 (4)
- January 2002 (4)
- December 2001 (1)
- November 2001 (5)
- October 2001 (4)
- September 2001 (4)
- August 2001 (5)
- July 2001 (2)
- June 2001 (4)
- May 2001 (4)
- April 2001 (4)
- March 2001 (3)
- February 2001 (4)
- January 2001 (4)