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23 posts tagged with "Economic Forecast"
I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write...
This
week I spoke to a small group of businessmen/entrepreneurs about the current
economic environment, and after my presentation one asked me whether I didn't have
any good news for them, with a kind of gallows humor laugh. And I tried. But
upon reflection there is more I could have said, so this...
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The...
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various...
As long-time readers know, my daughter Tiffani and I are interviewing millionaires for a book we will be writing called Eavesdropping on Millionaires.
This has been one of the more personally impacting projects of my life, as the stories we hear are so very provocative. I hope we can transfer to...
Last week's letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and final part. Let me set up this section with a few paragraphs from last week's letter and then a quick summary. If you want to read the entire...
"The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run." - Benjamin Graham
The voting part of the equation is tempered by fear and greed. It is largely emotional, although investors like to think of themselves as rational players. That emotion is driven by...
Are we in a bull, a bear, or a cowardly lion market? As we will see, the answer can make a huge difference in your investment portfolio. This week I am at my Strategic Investment conference in La Jolla. About four times a year I take a break from writing...
There is so much that is happening each and every day as the Continuing Crisis moves slowly into month 8, so much news to follow, so many details that need to be followed up that it can get a little overwhelming. Where to begin? Maybe with a "minor" change of the rules on how we value assets,...
Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home sales since the housing market started to decline last year. I was in my car and listening to CNBC as commentators started to celebrate the bottom of the housing market. Since the credit crisis has its roots in the...
As predicted in this letter early this year, the credit markets have finally begun to tighten, as a major re-pricing of risk is underway as a direct result of the subprime markets. The subprime virus seems to be spreading, despite the view a few weeks ago that there would be no "contagion" in...
This week I am already in Maine and getting ready for a weekend of fishing with my son Trey, so I am going to take off a week from writing the letter. I spoke this morning to the Maine chapter of the Chartered Financial Analysts in Portland. The question of the day was about the subprime...
This week I am in South Africa. At the moment I am literally flying from Johannesburg to Durban in a single-engine Pilates PC 12, a very upscale Swiss-manufactured plane. I am told pilots will know and appreciate the plane. It is supposedly the safest plane in the world, which is somewhat...
Are we in for a soft or a hard landing? Did retail sales slow, as the data suggest, or is the underlying data quite bullish? We will look at the arguments, and then look at the most reliable of all economic indicators to see if we can get an idea as to which view is right.
But first, I want...
This week we will venture into the always hazardous area of making my semi-annual forecast. I make some non-consensus projections as to the economic climate for the next six months, and of course look at Fed policy. We will also quickly review my beginning of the year (2006) forecast and see...
Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2006. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four or five combined, simply reading hundreds of pages of research, looking at mountains of data all in an...
This is the text of a speech given at the Accelerating Change 2004 conference at Stanford University. The conference organizers asked me to look out over the next 3-4 decades and offer my thoughts as to what the future may look like. A somewhat daunting task, and one guaranteed to failure, as the...
This week we look at how politics and geopolitical events can affect our investments. We look at a decade-long forecast from one of my favorite information services: Stratfor.com. I change my view on the euro, talk about a possible Chinese recession and look at uncomfortable analogies between...
Writing on the train to Yorkshire from London, I am surrounded by a gorgeous English countryside on a beautiful spring day. Life has its moments. I like the trains in Europe. Quite a civilized way to travel. Yet every time I pull out my wallet, I am reminded of reality. The ebb and flow of the...
I promised in my January 2003 forecast I would re-visit my predictions, giving you a mid-year update. Faster than I can believe, that time is upon us. Once again I dare to venture where wiser minds will not trod: into the territory of economic predictions.
