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18 posts tagged with "Earnings"
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There's a reason economics is called the dismal science, and weeks like this just give it further meaning. In economics, there is what you see and what you don't. This week we are going to examine the headline data we all see and then take a look for what most observers do not see. Then we'll try...
The market, we keep hearing and reading, is telling us that there is recovery around the corner. And pundits point to data that seems to suggest the worst is behind us. The leading economic indicators, while still down significantly, seem to be in the process of bottoming. There is a large amount...
This week we look at the Land of the Rising Sun. Japan is going through major upheavals, and they will have consequences all over the world. And what are those wild and crazy Swiss central bankers up to? It's time for another round of competitive devaluation. And of course I have to look at the...
It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts...
When confronted about an apparent change of his opinions, John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" The earnings season for the 4th quarter is almost 80% complete, and the facts are dismal. It is worse than the current data shows,...
"The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run." - Benjamin Graham
The voting part of the equation is tempered by fear and greed. It is largely emotional, although investors like to think of themselves as rational players. That emotion is driven by...
This week we look at the recent upspike in volatility, see if we can connect some dots with the recent slew of earnings downgrades and the problems in the subprime mortgage world, and follow the money as risk is being taken off the table. I don't "buy" the China problem, but there may be an...
Earnings season is upon us, and with each announcement the market seems to surge on new ecstasies or retreat with disillusionment. Each new announcement is cut open, like so many sheep, to see what its entrails will divine to us about the future, as if one more bit of fresh data will give us the...
I wrote about a study last year that suggested corporate earnings in the US could not grow by more than the growth of GDP.
"Our median estimate of the growth rate of operating performance corresponds closely to the growth rate of gross domestic product over the sample period
....the growth in...
Today I discuss one of the most dangerous threats to your retirement and then we listen to a few seasoned pros tell us why the market is not going up. It should make for an interesting session, so let's get started.
I got the following email from a reader yesterday which so upset me I decided to...
How, more than a few readers ask, can the economy continue to Muddle Through if I am right about the market eventually dropping another 40% before we get to the end of the secular bear market cycle? Won't such a massive destruction of wealth mean a depression? We look at that question, some...
Earlier this year I wrote that the deduction of option expenses and proper accounting for pension liabilities would become an issue, and that it was highly likely that when new accounting standards are adopted that these would be addressed. If so, then it would be a large drag upon future...
What would real profits be for NASDAQ companies if options were expensed? What would the stock price be for the biggest companies in America if investors started to price them based upon correct earnings figures? I give you the numbers in today's E-letter, plus we look at why the dollar is...
This morning I saw economist Larry Kudlow on CNBC once again telling us the markets would turn back up at some point because the economy is getting better. Kudlow is a smart man, and I pay attention to his thoughtful style.
But in this matter he is dead wrong. Over the past few weeks, I think I...
Every week, as I sit down to write, I think about the scores of research reports and articles I have read in the past few weeks. Is there a new theme? What trend is developing? What is the picture coming into view from the pieces of the puzzle at which I get to look? What have I seen that I should...
Over the past few months, I have commented about how large corporations are using their company pension funds to bolster their corporate earnings. Under accounting rules, if a pension fund has "excess" funding, the excess can go to the bottom line of the corporation. Nothing particularly wrong with...
From ghoulies and ghosties
And long-leggedy beasties
And things that go bump in the night,
Good Lord, deliver us!
--Old Scottish Prayer
The cheerleaders are proclaiming we have visited The Bottom. Dark as a Texas canyon at midnight, it was scary; full of bears and ferocious short-selling...
This letter has some pretty important analysis, if I do say so myself. I tell you how we will recognize the bottom, and what can happen between now and then. You might want to forward this one to your friends.
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