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挽狂澜才是重心

旋转又旋转着更大的圈子，
猎鹰听不见放鹰人的呼唤；

一切已崩溃，抓不住重心；
纯然的混乱淹没了世界，
血腥的浊流出闸，而四方
淳浓的风俗皆已荡然；
上焉者毫无信心，下焉者
满腔是激情的狂热。

- 英国诗人叶芝（William Butler Yeats，1865－1939年）原著 中译节录自余光中《英美现代诗选》

在游戏中修改规则

安吉拉-默克尔领先倡议修改规则，即重新规定约束欧盟的基础条约。但是这个要求是不是太大，太迟了？市场行动表明，时间确实已经快用尽，因此我们将看看可能会产生的结果。然后我把目光转向另一个方向，留意一下中国的进口情况。另外再提供一些链接，你可以在周末听来打发时间。内容很多，让我们直接切入正题吧。

Featured Video: Louis-Vincent Gave on the China Driven Emerging Market Boom

Watch special video of Louis-Vincent Gave, chief executive officer of GaveKal, as he discusses the China Driven Emerging Market Boom. This insightful presentation was filmed at the Strategic Investment Conference 2011 in La Jolla, CA.

思考不可想象之事

上周，在我的年度预测的上半部分，我说美国2011年的经济增长将会脱离跋涉状态，国内生产总值增长率将会在2.5%以上。世界GDP增长将会更快。本周，我们一起来看这个乐观预测会存在哪些实际风险。这些风险并不在美国，而在大洋彼岸的欧洲和中国。此外，如果空间允许，我们还将谈论其它一些问题（伯南克近期的演讲亟需一些点评）。

先是两则简短的通知。首先，我将于4月28-30日与合作机构Altegris投资公司在拉荷亚举办第八届策略投资会议。请把日期保存下来。我们的投资会每年都在更加完善，嘉宾阵容非常强大。我将会宣布接受预订的时间。座位一定会售之一空，所以建议您不要犹豫。

标准已被调低

中国货币正在对美元缓慢升值。但中国是否因此受到伤害？我们在下文一起来看一张非常有趣的图表和一些研究。然后，我们进一步探讨为什么就业数据会出人意料。我猜想如果你将标准降低了，是更容易跳过去的。我还将回复读者对上周的《跳出思维定式》的反馈！此外，爱尔兰也进入了我的雷达网。内容很多，让我们直接切入正题吧。

我是在从克利夫兰起飞的航班上开始写本周通讯的。我在克利夫兰诊所会见了我的好友迈克-罗伊森医生（Mike...

中国增长的道义性

本周，我在休斯顿参加一场投资会。以往做演讲，我很少去听其他分会。但今天，Streettalk投资顾问机构请来了很多重头嘉宾，因此，每场分会我都打算参加。可是今天是周五，我要写作，怎么办？不担心，您会获得最珍贵的信息。我将把我在这场投资会中听到、看到最具价值的见识和图表与您分享。然后提供GaveKal的查尔斯-杰弗和阿瑟-克罗伯关于“中国增长道义性”的两段颇有见地的评论。有用的图表加上能够激发您思考的信息，应该是一期不错的通讯了。

养老金问题

可悲的是，我发现自己在机场的时间足够让自己再写一篇《前沿思考》，因为航班预订出错害我在肯尼迪国际机场足足等了六个小时，而不是在缅因州钓鱼。在本文结尾处再跟感兴趣的朋友说明细节。不过，这也让我有时间跟你们谈论一份关于公共养老金资金短缺问题如何严重的报告，非常发人深省。情况恶劣程度是你无法想象的。然后是西蒙-亨特（Simon Hunt）关于中国的一篇令人大开眼界的报告，他慷慨地答应让我全文复制。您一定想看一看。我们先来看来自路透社的一个最新传闻，边读边哭吧。作者是 James Pethokoukis。

"跋涉前行"面临的威胁

如果中国让人民币升值，美国的情况会更好吗？包括参议员和诺贝尔奖得主在内的一小撮人就是这么认为的。保罗-克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）想对中国商品征收25%的关税。今天，我们就来分析一下该说法是否可取，并审视我们面对的实际问题。如果有这么简单就好了。这些数字根本就不合理。错误，亲爱的布鲁图斯……

不过首先，为响应加拿大近期举行的奥林匹克运动会的精神，我很高兴跟加拿大的读者宣布我在加拿大的新合作方，即总部设在温哥华的尼古拉财富管理公司。为什么选择尼古拉财富管理公司呢？经过一段时间的了解之后，我非常信任和尊敬该公司的总裁约翰-尼古拉（John...

The Statistical Recovery

A lot of bullish commentators are talking about a recovery being in the works, and they may very well be right. But it is not going to look like any recovery worthy of the name. This week we look at what I will call The Statistical Recovery. But first we take a look at what China is doing, as we...

The Trend May Not Be Your Friend

Two weeks ago I presented my thoughts on the current economic situation at my 6th Annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla (co-hosted with Altegris Investments). The speech was well-received, at least to judge from the comment forms. So this week and next, we are going to revisit that...

The Swiss Start Their Engines

This week we look at the Land of the Rising Sun. Japan is going through major upheavals, and they will have consequences all over the world. And what are those wild and crazy Swiss central bankers up to? It's time for another round of competitive devaluation. And of course I have to look at the...

Time for a Reality Check

It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts...

Some Things That Just Should Not Be

There are things in today's markets that are simply astounding. They should not exist, yet they do. Why should US bills trade at negative interest? How can oil be trading at all-time highs in terms of spreads over the next year? Bank debt and bonds are trading at discounts not to be believed. Want...

The Economy Gets a Margin Call

As long-time readers know, my daughter Tiffani and I are interviewing millionaires for a book we will be writing called Eavesdropping on Millionaires. This has been one of the more personally impacting projects of my life, as the stories we hear are so very provocative. I hope we can transfer to...

Whatever Happened to Decoupling?

The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world....

The GDP Equation

A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This week we look at how the GDP is actually calculated to give us an idea as to the potential for a recession. We re-visit my concepts of a Slow Motion Recession and a Muddle...

The Return of Muddle Through

The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer spending came in strong, employment looks like it may be ok, inflation...

The Fugu Ultimatum

In the early fall of 1998, I remember being on a flight to Bermuda from New York. I was upgraded and sat next to a very distinguished looking gentleman. He was going to a conference about re-insurance and I was going to speak at a large hedge fund conference. We hit it off, and began a very...

The Birth/Death Ratio

Is the economy slowing down or is it getting ready to go on a new tear? Judging by the run-up in the Dow, the answer is a major turnaround for the economy in the last half of the year, from the close-to-recession numbers of the first quarter. So, what has happened to my forecast of a slowdown...

Blame It On Stability

This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge . The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some recent data, and a lengthy telephone interview with...