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24 posts tagged with "Bubble"
Should Greenspan and Bernanke have seen the bubble in housing and other assets and acted, or should we accept their defense that you can't know whether there is a bubble until after the fact? We will look at research that suggests they should have known, and, at the least, policy makers should no...
The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data, it is worse than the headline loss of 4,000 jobs. Should the Fed cut the interest rates in two weeks? Will it make a difference? Are we headed into recession (as predicted here in my January 2007 forecast issue)?...
This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge
. The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some recent data, and a lengthy telephone interview with...
I am taking some time off from writing over the holidays, but good friend Barry Ritholtz offered to write this week's letter. It is a very thought-provoking piece on the importance of what he calls the "real estate industrial complex" to the economy. Loaded with charts and statistics, it is the...
This week I am in New Orleans at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and quite frankly with so many good friends that I have given myself permission to not write a letter this week. But you will be getting an even better writer than me for this week's letter.
I arranged for good...
We have been told for months that the next interest rate move by the Federal Reserve is dependent upon what the data tells us prior to each meeting. If the data tells us that inflation is too high and/or the economy too strong, the Fed will continue in its pause mode or maybe even hike rates....
I had occasion to be in my car this morning, listening to CNBC, when the host of the show (Bob Pisani, a very nice gentleman on the few occasions I have had the opportunity to meet him) was arguing with a modestly bearish guest. Yes, there are a lot of reasons for concern noted by bears, but...
What is the relationship between housing prices and stock market forecasting? What will happen if the housing market begins to falter? Exactly what did Greenspan say about housing at Jackson Hole? We explore these topics and a whole lot more and hopefully we can tie them all together by the end...
Looking at a recent magazine covers one is left with the impression that the whole world is concerned about US real estate prices. This is borne out by the fact that if you go to Google and type in sex you get 78,000,000 hits. If you type in real estate you get 110,000,000 hits, which makes...
With many sub-market indexes hitting new highs, and given the recent performance of the market, how can I maintain we are still in a long-term secular bear market? Shouldn't we get back in, as so many advise? That is a reasonable question, and the subject of today's letter.
We will start with a...
Today we take a final look at the housing market. Are we in a bubble or is it merely a period of overheated prices which will cool off? Is it the right time to buy (or sell) a home? If there is a bubble, how would we spot it?
A little full disclosure. Thinking about the housing markets for the...
This week we once again look at the US housing market. We explore what may be the prime contributor to spiraling home prices. (I bet this once catches 95% of you by surprise, but in hindsight, you will all nod and think to yourself that is what you suspected all along, just as I did.) We look at...
As I have written about and documented on many occasions, the economic health of the US consumer is hinged upon the housing market and housing values more than any other single factor. Since the entire economy, not to mention the world economy, is heavily leveraged to a healthy US consumer, the...
Today, we are going to look at a very important study by the always insightful James Montier on the Echo Bubble? Can we look at past bubbles and see a pattern? But first, we are going to look at a (frankly disturbing) new book, which I am going to encourage you to get and read.
"In 2030, as 77...
Insanity, my bride tells me again and again, is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. This week we return to the concept of Bringing Out Your Inner Spock. We look at four more reasons why our psychological make-up makes us prone to making major investment mistakes. For...
This week we further explore the variation in economic forecasts and then finish with Part Three of "How the World Really Works" from my friend, Art Cashin. Many thanks to him for allowing me to use his work so that I could get a little R&R this summer. Next week it is back to the heat of Texas and...
This week I want to briefly look at some comments by Stephen Roach and Rob Arnott, two of my favorite analysts. Then we quickly segue into Part One of a series showing the relationship between stock market returns, P/E ratios, inflation/deflation and the economy. This is some of the more practical...
This week we look at trends and how to make them your friend. Whether its stocks, the dollar or interest rates, getting the trend right is a cornerstone of successful investing.
I finish up this week's letter while flying back from DC. On Monday, I was invited to testify before the...
I am writing this week's e-letter early, as tomorrow I travel to speak at an investment conference in Florida. As I review the articles and reports of the last few weeks, I am struck by the number of very interesting topics which deserve their own letter. There is truly a lot happening, so like the...
There has been more important and interesting economic analysis that has come across my desk in the last few weeks than at any time I can remember. I have spent a lot of time pondering the meaning of several very different items, and trying to see how the dots connect. I think it will give us some...
