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17 posts tagged with "Ben Bernanke"
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Fine, then. Uh oh, overflow,
population, common food, but it'll do to
Save yourself, serve yourself.
World serves its own needs,
listen to your heart bleed – dummy with the rapture and
the revered and the right, right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam,
fight, bright light, feeling
pretty...
Correct
me if I’m wrong, but I seem to remember that one of the reasons for QE2 was to
lower rates on the longer end of the US yield curve. Clearly, that has not
happened? Today we look at come of the unintended consequences of monetary
policy, turn our eyes briefly to consumer debt,...
I
am in London finishing my new book, The End Game, which will
be out after the first of the year, as soon as Wiley can make it happen.
Working with my co-author, Jonathan Tepper,
we are making good progress. We intend to quit (a book like this is
never finished) tomorrow afternoon.
...
We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.
Quickly, I will be on Larry...
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, but the quick answer doesn't tell us much. We...
Leverage
is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice as bad as the two four-letter words debt
and pain
(or fill in your own four-letter words). This week I try to give some insight into what is happening in the credit markets, some of it below the radar screen of most...
My Dad used to tell me there is no accounting for standards when looking at something that seemed odd. Today, we have faulty standards for accounting that are ripping apart the fabric of the world's economy. How can a security that has a high probability of full repayment be downgraded from AA to...
This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how...
After a wild week in the markets, there is so much to write about, it is hard to know where to start. The headline number says jobless claims fell 20,000. That would be good news, if it were true. Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain to see how these statistics are made. As we will see,...
"Of his bones are coral made:
Those are pearls that were his eyes:
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea change
Into something rich and strange"
(The Tempest - Shakespeare)
The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since Will Shakespeare used it in...
The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data, it is worse than the headline loss of 4,000 jobs. Should the Fed cut the interest rates in two weeks? Will it make a difference? Are we headed into recession (as predicted here in my January 2007 forecast issue)?...
This week we had two more Federal Reserve members repeat what has become the theme for their chorus, but not one the market seems to be paying much attention to. It should be. The market believes the Fed will soon start to cut rates, perhaps as early as first quarter of next year. It is not...
The Fed elected to pause in its rate hiking assault on inflation this week. With the backward looking data pointing to higher inflation that must mean they expect the economy to slow down and thus tame what incipient inflation is lurking around the corner. But wait, the data this week suggests...
This week we will look at a few very interesting items that did not make it into last week's forecast, as that letter was already overly long. Bernanke's arrival, the importance of the housing market to the economy, the length of the recent rally and a note from good friend James Montier on why...
Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2006. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four or five combined, simply reading hundreds of pages of research, looking at mountains of data all in an...
The King is going. Long live the King. We now know that Ben Bernanke will be the next Fed Chairman. His approval by the Senate is as close to a lock as you can get. This week we focus on Bernanke, and specifically his most famous, and what I think one of the most important speeches ever by a...
Today we are going to look at a very important speech by new Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke. I think this is one of the more important letters I have written in a while. The speech has received a lot of publicity for some of it's speculations about potential Fed policy. Some seem to find...
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