Dr. Frankenstein’s Europe
By John Mauldin
May 19, 2012
1337468330
这篇文章是不是在中国发售。为了您的方便,这里是英语语言版本。
"Had I right, for my own
benefit, to inflict this curse upon everlasting generations? I had before been
moved by the sophisms of the being I had created; I had been struck senseless
by his fiendish threats; but now, for the first time, the wickedness of my
promise burst upon me; I shuddered to think that future ages might curse me as
their pest, whose selfishness had not hesitated to buy its own peace at the
price, perhaps, of the existence of the whole human race."
– The musings of Dr. Frankenstein
about his creation of a monster, in Mary Shelley's 1818 novel, Frankenstein
And later the monster answers:
"Shall each man," cried he,
"find a wife for his bosom, and each beast have his mate, and I be alone? I had
feelings of affection, and they were requited by detestation and scorn. Man!
You may hate, but beware! Your hours will pass in dread and misery, and soon
the bolt will fall which must ravish from you your happiness forever. Are you
to be happy while I grovel in the intensity of my wretchedness? You can blast
my other passions, but revenge remains – revenge, henceforth dearer than
light or food! I may die, but first you, my tyrant and tormentor, shall curse
the sun that gazes on your misery. Beware, for I am fearless and therefore
powerful. I will watch with the wiliness of a snake, that I may sting with its
venom. Man, you shall repent of the injuries you inflict."
In the classic novel by Mary
Shelley (written when she was just 19!), she writes about a young doctor (the
Frankenstein of the title) who defies nature and creates an ungainly monster,
piecing together parts that were not designed to fit each other. Even though he
gives the creature life, it eventually turns on him and his family. The unhappy
monster, which develops into quite the rationalizing being, demands that Dr.
Frankenstein create a female version of himself so they can flee civilization
and find happiness. When Dr. Frankenstein decides not to follow through on his
initial promise to do so (thus the first quote), the monster seeks revenge. It
does not end happily.
The European Monetary Union was
a triumph of hope over reason, pieced together from very dissimilar countries
which, while sharing common borders, have very different cultures and
economies. That it would eventually face an existential crisis was foretold by
numerous critics at the time of its creation. The euro has never been a real
currency. It was and still is an experiment, fashioned and shaped by a
generation with noble ideas and vision, but tied together by an unworkable
structure. Can its foundation be reworked into a solid structure? Or will natural
centrifugal forces pull it apart? The difficulties that are faced are somewhat
akin to fixing the engine of a jet plane while it is flying at 30,000 feet.
In today's letter we explore the
options that the eurozone faces in order to stay together, and what it all means
for some of the countries involved. While I have written for a very long time
about the probability of Greece exiting the eurozone, the actuality is fraught
with risk, not just for Europe but for the world economy. What happens in the
next few months will impact us all for a very long time. Indeed, this is one of
those years, as Lenin noted, when decades happen. There is a lot to cover, and
in future weeks we will go into more detail, but today let's just step back and
see if we can get the larger picture.
The
term du jour for the possible exit of Greece from the eurozone is "Grexit." It
is a rather ugly sounding word for what will be an ugly process if it happens.
A Grexit has several serious implications. (I wonder how the Chinese
translators will render Grexit.)
The first is the risk of
contagion. When Bear Stearns went bankrupt, the immediate question by the
market was not how much did we lose, but who is next? As it turned out, it was
Lehman. The...
Comments
Alan Harris
Today, 3:50 p.m.
Cummon John…I’m throwing down the gauntlet. If you were Greek, what would you be advising. No story is complete until both sides are told.
chip rohlke
Today, 9:23 a.m.
I still think John Greece has opened Pandora’s Box much as Obama has here with people feeling government has the obligation to meet all our needs.
Human nature being what it is ..I think Europe is going to regret opening that box cause all those nasty little demons that come out are going to play havock with peoples hearts and minds.
The end game to me in Europe is simply a game of domino’s…with Germany hurt but still standing. One nation after another defaulting in the end cause people have little tolerance for choosing suffering. Plain & simple. Where that leaves us and Asia is a good question but if Japan tanks it doesn’t bode well for Korea & asia in general.
I wish we could instill the values that made America great once again but how do you reinforce American ingenuity, hard work, saving, frontier spirit, & general Christian values when the easy way is to capitulate & line up for your bailout from Uncle Sam..no matter how haggard he’s looking.
Alan Harris
Yesterday, 7:36 a.m.
Vincent Roach earlier…...
Of course the Greek people could be made to pay their taxes etc. All it takes is for them to elect the right person. But there’s the fatal flaw with democracy….... turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. What they need is a politician who lies to get elected, or as we more politely say in England, is ‘economic with the truth’ (shouldnt be hard to find a politician capable of that !) He/she will promise the comfy cushion till election day and redefine it later. I wonder if Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras, the 37-year-old head of the Coalition of the Radical Left, is that person? Sure, what he’s saying now scares us all…. it has to or he wouldn’t get elected. Lets wait it out a while to see how he re-defines the campaign message once he has got his butt in the chair.
ken wills
Yesterday, 5:51 a.m.
My wife read this and said: the L in that blokes name should be after the D . I said `its not his fault, he just says the truth` She said, `I dont want to know the truth unless its happy `
Wrong, but apposite.
Ski Milburn
May 19, 6:12 p.m.
John,
I feel your pain. You need to get out more.
By that I mean, out of banks, and conferences with bankers about banks. You’re starting to remind me of that old anti-drug ad campaign, “This is your brain. This is your brain on banks”.
The sad truth is it is as you foretold and a 30 year infatuation with debt is coming to a sad end. The miracle of fractional reserve banking and central banks, coupled with the permanent deficits of Reaganomics have led to a world where banks have loaned too much money they didn’t actually have to borrowers who can’t actually pay, and you don’t need to read your own book to know what happens next.
You can’t stop it. Hug your wife, get some sleep and know that when this is all over, whether the Euro or even the United States of America survives in its current form, the sun will still come up in the morning, the rivers will still run, the wind will still blow, and people will live and love on this great land.
James Prestridge
May 19, 6:04 p.m.
What happens if the unthinkable happens and the healthy countries (e.g. Germany) leave the euro and return to their original currencies????????
Mickey Dawiz
May 19, 5:38 p.m.
“Call me skeptical, but I fail to see how a young man who has never been at a negotiating table with any of the Troika (and who has apparently never talked with a German banker) can think he can hold Europe hostage.”
As one who is older. I question your point: The Troika are very used to dealing with those their age, as they come from a similar ‘reality’ and are ‘predictable’; someone younger is a far bigger question mark and un-predictability can be an advantage in negotiating and “hostage taking” - just look at North Korea.
Alan Harris
May 19, 5:35 p.m.
Re jack Goldman today 3.25…. Ive rarely heard it put better. We are ransoming our children to cushion the older generation. If this doesnt stop, they will have no choice but to do the same. There has to be a full stop. We abolished slavery didnt we?
Alan Harris
May 19, 5:25 p.m.
One of your more passionate missives John, but thoroughly misguided. Youre looking at Grexit from outside the box. From inside, Greece is threatening to tear up the bailiffs demands and post the keys through the banks door…...remind you of anyone in USA? Starting over sounds like a good idea to me. Greece ‘....will be forced to stop paying our creditors, to go to a suspension in payments to our creditors.’ then that delivers the problem to europe.’ To me, that sounds like youth speaking.! Scary as it maybe, one day they will be running this show.
IF, and that’s a big if, push comes to shove, if ‘Greece can manage on its own. By not paying its debts, the country will have enough cash to pay its workers and retirees.’ ....... then, (not responsible by our investors standards), isnt it better to open Pandora’s box than suffer the death of a thousand cuts?
Greece has Merkle by the balls….and she hasn’t got any ! Anyone who has ever stood guarantor for a friends debt knowing it will never be paid, eventually accepts their own stupidity, pays the balance, and NEVER lends another penny. Does it mean the friend curls up and dies? No, self survival is the strongest instinct. And the Greek people will survive….and our ‘civilised’ societies WILL pick up the tab.
Charlie Adamson
May 19, 4:55 p.m.
A most helpful insight from a fevered 19 year young timeless awareness. John,... your keen pick up on the parallel between Europe’s present plight and the dangers of human arrogance and meddling and Mary Shelley’s account of narcissim is timely.
May I also add that this same behavior seems to be shared by many other nations as well as many institions, governments and companies. However when allowed rein it always seem that it is the peasantry who always pay most dearly.
Thanks for sounding the call to awaken. Perhaps some of the “loyal” somnambulist subjects will wake up before they get run-over on their way to a paupers grave.
Thanks