Mauldin Community

“A Leaderless World”

2012-05-08T03:20:19Z

Bremmer’s contribution about the “G-Zero World” seemed weaker than most pieces that John reprints. I’d go so far as to say that it’s nonsense. For better or worse, the United States is still the only superpower, and will be for the foreseeable future. The United States would still be the only superpower if it cut its military expenditure in half.

In my personal opinion, the world would be a better place if the United States did not exercise a “leadership” role by sticking its nose into practically every corner of the planet (I would describe it more as a gang-boss role rather than a “leadership” role). But I don’t see any change coming. Despite current problems, the United States still has a very dynamic economic system, while China’s is based on a flawed model. As for the other BRICs, Brazil’s currency is now over-valued - Brazil is a more more expensive place to do business in than many parts of the USA. India is handicapped by corruption and bureaucracy, and Russia is still a place where personal political influence matters more than the law. None of this is conducive to long-term economic growth. In my opinion, the USA is a better place to invest, today, than any of the BRICs. Europe and Japan are in much deeper economic trouble than the US.

We’re in a G-1 world, now and probably for the next 20 years at least.

Figure 1.7 A typo??

2011-03-14T13:14:49Z

My interpretation of Figure 1.7 “Growth of U.S. Debt Outstanding” is that U.S. debt is coming down while household debt is increasing. Is this just a mislabeling of the graph lines or am I missing something?

B. J. Brown

RE “I’m worried ...”

2012-04-10T11:54:26Z

Was not Diocletian’s Rome essentially a controlled economy with productive ownership centralized under government dictate? And what “Barbarians” would today offer improved prospect? We tend to tax business because it’s an easier democratic choice amid unfortunately resilient outdated and irrational subsidies, when individual wealth (income) would be a better source to provide and balance national revenue need and distributive good.

Bob Warfield, Lakewood, WA

PS: With thanks and appreciation for consistently stimulating, informative, timely insight and review. BW

Which country/currency?

2012-04-16T08:05:31Z

I have come to realize that we have to come live in what can be considered “interesting times”. I can’t say I know which age group is better off, the older or retired folks are at risk of losing everything they have saved (inflation or destabilization/collapse of financial systems). The young are finishing college with little to no solid employment prospects. The stock market volatility is changing the scope at which investors approach investing in the U.S. or any other world financial markets. Bond markets are offering very little return with a rising probability of default by many developed nations. Which leaves me to wonder – what could be considered a good long-term investment “safe-haven” if you will.

I am thinking in the terms of currency investments. A country which exports goods that are a “necessity”, has a positive account balance, a trade surplus, low debt-GDP ratio and a few other factors that would play well even when financial markets were to crash due to the ever growing U.S. Debt and EU Debt - and the inability to service (rising interest rates).

Find a country/currency to which investors may flee (invest in) when crisis arises in the U.S. Buy the currency now and sit on it, when inflation hits in the U.S. convert back to US-dollars.

Anyone give this some thought?

Off-campus textbook stores closing doors around the country

2012-04-14T02:10:03Z

As our nation’s economic challenges continue to have an impact on businesses in all industries, the local bookstore landscape has greatly changed in recent years. Many local college textbook stores have been hit hard and are no longer in business after having served students at large and prestigious universities several for generations.

According to RentScouter and the Gainesville Sun, the Nebraska Book Company, which owns a number of textbook outlets near college campuses around the country, recently closed seven off-campus college bookstores at major universities with large student populations.
Off-campus textbook stores closing doors around the country

Internationalization of RMB

2012-04-03T16:05:57Z

I was intrigued by the March 19 OTB letter about the creation of a new offshore RMB bond market in Hong Kong, and the transition in China’s international trade from low value comodity trades in USD to high value capital goods in RMB.

How might an individual investor profit from this trend?

http://www.johnmauldin.com/outsidethebox/weeks-when-decades-happen/

Thank you,
Jacob

Energy Independence

2012-03-17T12:18:06Z

John:
While not the main thrust of your current article, “Where Will the Jobs Come From,” I have read several times your claim that we can be energy independent in ten years. While I am totally sceptical that the political barriers could be overcome without some series of disasters (consider climate science as a template for inertia, denial, and the resistance of vested interests), I am also sceptical that the physical and financial constraints to such an ambitious undertaking could be overcome in that time-frame. I have read expert opinion that just protecting us from the effects of peak oil (another template for denial and resistance of vested interests) would be a stressing twenty year project. Perhaps you could do a piece or get an Outside the Box contributor to lay out in broad strokes how that would be done. To be credible, the article would have to include numbers, not just hand waving.
-B Stacy

Not Just Spain

2012-03-14T08:44:29Z

When I looked at the 240% private debt in Spain, I realized that many people I know in Portland OR are also in debt the same per percentage amount. Siting there with no equity in their house.
Some what mitigated by 4% mortgages.

So I say, “We have Spain right here in my home state. JURP

Breathtaking - even from a politician

2012-03-13T03:46:18Z

Lies are a politician’s stock-in-trade; the reason so many politicians say so many stupid things is not that they’re stupid, it’s that they believe the voters are stupid.

But, while they themselves don’t believe what they’re saying, they generally expect a lot of the voters to believe it. Otherwise what’s the point of saying it?

I’d like someone to ask Sarkozy that question. He’s quoted in John’s latest Outside the Box as saying:

I would like to say how happy I am that a solution to the Greek crisis ... has been found. Today the problem is solved.

Surely there is nobody on planet Earth who believes that? Well, strike that; for every nonsensical statement, there is somebody who believes it. But there are probably more people who believe the Earth is flat than believe that the Greek crisis has been “solved”.

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2010-12-20T11:55:14Z

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